Dealing with TMI in Statistics
A common idea in statistics is that if we don't know something, and we use an estimator of that something (instead of the true value) then there will be some additional uncertainty.

where it is standard to consider ranks, i.e.
are empirical cumulative distribution functions.
My point is that when I ran simulations for the survey (the idea was more to give illustrations of several techniques of estimation, rather than proofs of technical theorems) we observed that the price to pay... was negative ! I.e. the variance of the estimator of the density (wherever on the unit square) was smaller on the pseudo sample
than on perfect sample
.
By that time, we could not understand why we got that counter-intuitive result: even if we do know the true distribution, it is better not to use it, and to use instead a nonparametric estimator. Our interpretation was based on the discrepancy concept and was related to the latin hypercube construction:
This was our heuristic interpretation.
A couple of weeks ago, Christian Genest and Johan Segers proved that intuition in an article published in JMVA,
, but Christian and Johan obtained an analytical result. Hence, if we denote
the empirical copula in the perfect world (with known margins) and
the one constructed from the pseudo sample, they obtained that, everywhere
with nice graphs of
,
So I was very happy last week, when Christian showed me their results, to
learn that our intuition was correct. Nevertheless, it is still a very
counter-intuitive result...If anyone has seen similar things, I'd be
glad to hear about it!
Published at DZone with permission of Arthur Charpentier, author and DZone MVB. (source)

where
is the quantile of probability level
of the standard normal distribution
. But usually, standard deviation
(the something is was talking about earlier) is usually unknown. So we substitute an estimation of the standard deviation, e.g.
and the cost we have to pay is that the new confidence interval is
where now
is the quantile of the Student distribution, of probability level
, with
degrees of freedom.
We call it a cost since the new confidence interval is now larger (the Student distribution has higher upper-quantiles than the Gaussian distribution).
So usually, if we substitute an estimation to the true value, there is a price to pay.
A few years ago, with Jean David Fermanian and Olivier Scaillet, we were writing a survey on copula density estimation (using kernels, here). At the end, we wanted to add a small paragraph on the fact that we assumed that we wanted to fit a copula on a sample
i.i.d. with distribution
, a copula, but in practice, we
start from a sample
with joint distribution
(assumed to
have continuous margins, and - unique - copula
). But since margins are
usually unknown, there should be a price for not observing them.
To be more formal, in a perfect wold, we would consider
but in the real world, we have to consider
is the quantile of probability level
of the standard normal distribution
. But usually, standard deviation
(the something is was talking about earlier) is usually unknown. So we substitute an estimation of the standard deviation, e.g.

is the quantile of the Student distribution, of probability level
, with
degrees of freedom. We call it a cost since the new confidence interval is now larger (the Student distribution has higher upper-quantiles than the Gaussian distribution).
So usually, if we substitute an estimation to the true value, there is a price to pay.
A few years ago, with Jean David Fermanian and Olivier Scaillet, we were writing a survey on copula density estimation (using kernels, here). At the end, we wanted to add a small paragraph on the fact that we assumed that we wanted to fit a copula on a sample
i.i.d. with distribution
, a copula, but in practice, we
start from a sample
with joint distribution
(assumed to
have continuous margins, and - unique - copula
). But since margins are
usually unknown, there should be a price for not observing them.To be more formal, in a perfect wold, we would consider


are empirical cumulative distribution functions.My point is that when I ran simulations for the survey (the idea was more to give illustrations of several techniques of estimation, rather than proofs of technical theorems) we observed that the price to pay... was negative ! I.e. the variance of the estimator of the density (wherever on the unit square) was smaller on the pseudo sample
than on perfect sample
.By that time, we could not understand why we got that counter-intuitive result: even if we do know the true distribution, it is better not to use it, and to use instead a nonparametric estimator. Our interpretation was based on the discrepancy concept and was related to the latin hypercube construction:

This was our heuristic interpretation.
A couple of weeks ago, Christian Genest and Johan Segers proved that intuition in an article published in JMVA,

, but Christian and Johan obtained an analytical result. Hence, if we denote


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